Any Bets On When They Launch?

[Geoff Winnington-Ball (RIP)]

Regardless of what you feel about the politics of the thing, very shortly U.S. and British troops - along with Australian, Canadian and perhaps other Commonwealth advisors - are going to be placing themselves in harm's way once again.

I believe we have an obligation to respect the honour of our soldiery and that it's time to invoke it now.

I personally believe that this operation has to be done, and better sooner rather than later... some of you may not agree, and I respect your opinions in that regard; but we have men out there who, in time-honoured tradition, will be once again 'facing the dragon', and my heartfelt best wishes go out to them for a speedy and hopefully painless conclusion to this mess.

Maybe one day we'll figure out a better way of solving problems, but for now... our thoughts must be for those who have to climb out of holes in the ground, pick up their rifles and put their lives on the line.

I was one of them once... in a small way, I wish I were there right now with them.

I'm guessing early AM Wednesday, Baghdad time.

[Mark W. Tonner]

Geoff;

I'd say within 2 hours of the end of the latest 48 hour deadline.

"The Infantryman - The Queen of Battle" - God Speed and Good Luck Boys, Happy Hunting!

Cheers from a "Retired Infantryman"

[Hanno Spoelstra]

I think international diplomacy has failed in a major way as this will be the first real war the USA starts without having been attacked first. The world will never be the same hereafter, and I sincerely hope it will be a better one for the people of Irak.

I morally support the men and women who will be "picking the hot coals from the fire" as we use to say in Dutch.

[Alex Blair (RIP)]

Hanno...
Quote"this will be the first real war the USA starts without having been attacked first".....
This is just a continuation on Georges war on terror...
I would call the twin towers attack a first stike....by the bad guys....
This war on terror is a war of "bad guys" and good guys....
If you are a bad guy ..you are going to get whacked...
I don't think the North Korean "Dear Leader" is a Moslem....so I don't think it is a religious war...just a bad guys and good guys war....but a war none the less...
As soon as the 48hours is up..or before...the US will strike...They want to hammer the hell out of the Iraquis by Friday ,Moslem holy day so they can let up to see who is left standing....That will put the US at Bagdads door...They don't have to go in..just isolate them and starve 'em out....

[Bob Potter]

About a half hour ago, I had this discussion with a class of senior girls. I agree with all of you: it has to be done, the UN failed to do it, now the only super-power has to. I wore the uniform once and am too old (by government standards) to put it on again. If I who am single could change with someone who had a family, I would in a minute.

God speed all who serve and wait.

Bob

[Pete Ashby]

Gentlemen

we may all yet be in the firing line, I fear this one may not be as clear cut and away from home as the Gulf War was.

Britain waits

Pete

[Dana Nield]

I'm thinking one second after the deadline. It will be around 3 am local time in Iraq and the Iraqis will be at the end of their rope, physically speaking. Nerves, lack of sleep and darkness won't working in their favour, however those factors will help the US and UK.

12 years is enough. The world owes it to those who died evicting this monster from Kuwait in the first place to finish the job and finish it properly.

Dana

When tanks moved across the border from Kuwait. I Figure the air war will start when it is most politically convenient.

Everyone should know by now that I have been vehemently opposed to this war since January 2001. See here http://www.ccmep.org/us_bombing_watch.html

The US is bankrupt and needs to steal someone's oil to bail themself out. But, I digress.

The problem facing the world right now is what will happen next. France is getting the blame, but Russia and China still have to make their stance known, and that isn't getting reported to the American people. Here's what was reported in the Guardian...

"In Moscow, Mr Putin said a war without UN approval "would be fraught with the gravest consequences, will result in casualties and destabilise the international situation in general ... We stand for resolving the problem exclu sively through peaceful means. Any other option would be a mistake."

That could very well be diplo-speak for saying attack and we'll get involved militarily. Despite the break up of the Soviet Union, Russia can still field a formidable army, and they have as many nukes as the US.

If the UN says that the attack is a no go, then Canada and quite a few other countries will be called to rise up again the US, Britain, and Australia to halt the attack and eject the invaders. Don't think it can't happen.

Guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens. As far as the air war goes, sorry guys, Bomber Harris and Goering thought they could win the war from the air. In Aghansitan they more or less bombed rubble into rubble. Unless the US is prepared to completely flatten the country, they will still have to send in the PBI, and never under-estimate what a desparate people will do when fighting for their home. Not a single Iraqi thinks that they would be better off under an American oil regime; they don't really like Saudi Arabia.

Also to be considered is the number of non-Iraqis currently flocking to help defend. At least enough for an infantry division is on the way, and I wouldn't be surprised if another could be mustered is a call went out.

I wonder if history will be as kind to the war mongers as it was to the German people who supported Hitler. We witnessed that, so we should be expected to know better, and yet we see it happening again.

[Dana Nield]

And here I was supporting the US! What was I thinking?!

Dana

22:11 2003-03-18
Bush's Administration Ready to Lose 63 Thousand People in Iraq

Colonel-General Valery Manilov thinks that the outcome of the war in Iraq is not obvious

This was said by the former first deputy chief of the Russian Headquarters, a member of the Federation Council, Colonel-General Valery Manilov. He is certain: if the American administration launches the ground operation, America's supremacy in arms and defense technologies will be brought to nothing with the Iraqi climate. Valery Manilov believes that the outcome of the war is not obvious at the moment.

What is the most probable way for the situation to develop during the first stage of the war?

First and foremost, one should say that nothing depends on the quantitative correlation of forces. Quality is much more important than quantity at the first stage of the war. It is an open secret that the USA is ready to use up-to-date arms during its operation in Iraq. At first, the USA will try to discourage the enemy with strategic facilities. I hope that Americans will exclude an opportunity to use mass destruction weapons. They will strike blows with their aviation and battleships that are concentrated around Iraq. They will also use missiles and heavy bombs. It goes without saying that bombings will result in numerous casualties, no matter how smart those bombs might be. Baghdad will have to respond with ABM systems that it has at its disposal. Long-distance blows are only a start. The USA will have to launch the ground operation, for it will not be possible for America to achieve its goals at a distance. If Turkey allows American troops to approach Iraq from its territory, the ground blow will be struck from the north, which is controlled by Kurds, and from the south, from the direction of Kuwait. The start of the operation will depend on the US intelligence – on the information that it will provide about the results of air strikes. However, I believe that it will not be possible for the United States to conduct a fast operation. I think that the offensive will stumble on account of climate, geography, demography and other factors.

I think that American arms will be deprived of their qualitative predominance under Iraqi conditions. Abrams tanks, for example, are equipped with turbines, which go out of order in case of a sand storm. Laser and electronic facilities will turn to a pile of rubbish on account of dust storms and smoke from burning oil terminals. This will be the time for another kind of logic: direct shots, direct visibility, human eyesight and courage. The USA’s qualitative advantage will be brought to nothing with local Iraqi conditions. American and British troops might face the danger of losing a lot of their military men.

What can you say about those losses?

As American officials say that themselves, every three of ten US soldiers might die. This means that the losses might make up 63 thousand people from 211 thousand. There might be even more victims, for the Iraqi army is rather determined. To crown it all, the war will not have a political or diplomatic cover. If Bush launches the war without the UN approval, the whole world will think of America as of an aggressor. It will be an aggression against another state – a member of the United Nations Organization.

Do you think that the war in Iraq will seriously complicate the issue of USA’s security?

I would not like to talk about that. If the war starts, it would be correct to expect that an attacked state would do something against aggressor’s allies. Iraq might attack Israel and other USA’s allies by means of terrorist acts, subversive activities, not to mention armed clashes. Do you know the number of fanatic Muslims? One is not supposed to underestimate the consequences that such subversive activities might have for the American leadership.

In other words, you mean that the operation will last long?

Speaking about strategic and military issues, the military part of the operation might become rather short. It is not ruled out that Iraq’s resistance will be broken at the expense of huge losses. This variant is rather possible to happen. It is already known that ten million of Iraqi people will be left without any water as a result of air strikes. This was said by the UN. How long will Iraqi people manage to live? Three or four days? How many refugees will there be, not to mention casualties? Iraqi regime will be crushed, Saddam will be forced to leave for the sake of his nation. Then the post-war process will start. Here is another variant. The American blitzkrieg will fail, and Americans will refuse from conducting the ground operation further on. If it happens, other Iraq disarmament projects will come into effect. Russian and French officials currently talk about those projects. In other words, the problem will be settled within the framework of the United Nations.

Don’t you think that this is not likely to happen?

The operation might turn to a long war either way. That war will be accompanied with the humanitarian disaster. It will be like a spit in the face of the world community. We have to do our best in order not to let the war start. This is a very hard case to deal with both for the US, for Iraq and for the whole community, including Russia, Britain, France, China – permanent UN Security Council members. The system of post-WWII international relations is being trampled on. This is the beginning of the new stage, and it is impossible to predict its consequences.

Anton Brazhitsa
Gazeta.Ru

PRAVDA.Ru

Stalled by Sandstorm

Tuesday night, March 18, clouds of gritty flying desert sand put the hundreds of thousands of allied troops poised on the southern and western front lines for the order to advance into Iraq on the defensive. The flight crews of warplanes and helicopters, the tanks crews and the soldiers – on "Black Stage One", meaning to hold protective suits and gear ready for immediate use – were pre-empted, though not by Saddam Hussein. They had been caught by the first sandstorm of the season, a murky cloud blanketing a key area from Kuwait up to Baghdad.

The region will be prone to these storms from now until the first burning days of summer. Tuesday evening, US and British commanders discovered that the tanks to have rumbled forward in a vast column on Basra in the south and Baghdad further up in the center, had been stalled by grainy sand that gets into everything. The helicopters for flying the bulk of the assault troops to their target zones on three fronts were unable to take off and, worse, their engines and electronic instruments were clogged with the insidious sand.

This was the main reason for the decision by the allied war command to hold back the advance until the weather cleared, further frustrating the already restive troops.

DEBKAfile’s sources report that military weather forecasters promise the sandstorm will blow over Wednesday, leaving three to four days of clear skies before the next oppressive cloud of dust and sand descends on the area of attack.

Northern Front

Because of the bad weather in the south and west, the only real movement Tuesday occurred on the northern front. Following the signing of their secret accord with the United States, the Turks opened up their air space to American transports and fighter-bombers. Despite vehement denials from Turkey, our sources report that at long last the Americans were able to fly into Turkey troops of the 4th Cavalry Division who had been standing by in Fort Hood, Texas, waiting for the Turks to make up their minds. Some of the division’s troops may be discharged first at Bulgarian and Romanian bases, making their way overland to Turkey and thence into northern Iraq. Tuesday, March 18, US freighters were able finally to enter Eskenderun port and discharge the 4th Division’s heavy tanks.

This turn of the wheel is momentous. It enables the Americans to deploy armored forces on the northern front, which was in grave doubt until the Turks came round.

Another two key developments on the northern front:

The United States, Turkey and Iraq’s Kurdish chiefs and Turkomen leaders forged a deal permitting Turkish troops to enter northern Iraq. More details are expected on the size of the Turkish force and the extent of its penetration for setting up positions. This was the quid pro quo for Ankara’s consent to five Kurdish brigades of the two main militias, the PUK and PDK, entering the oil city of Kirkuk with the American forces.

Here too the delay exacted a price. The highways of Kurdistan were blocked with many thousands of Kurds fleeing north into the hills out of their cities for fear of Iraqi army reprisals, including chemical and biological attacks on civilians. This exodus was bound to slow the military advance in the north.

[Geoff Winnington-Ball (RIP)]

I believe you're wrong, Alexander, that in fact we HAVE to go and go now.

However, I'm not going to root around the internet for articles and links which support my view, for I feel that there has been enough rhetoric on the subject to-date, and that any more buys us nothing.

The time now is to focus our attention on the youngsters who shall shortly be at the pointy end of the stick, for the nth time in human history. Let us hope that this time around it will be quick and relatively bloodless; I suspect that Iraq is but a shell of what it purports to be, and that its rotten infrastructure will collapse like a deck of cards. For both sides, I hope so.

It's going to go global. We'll see what happens in due time.

[Geoff Winnington-Ball (RIP)]

In future, please provide links to articles you think are of interest to our readership, along with your reasons why, rather than cutting and pasting the whole article into our forum. MLU is not a news service, and and readers interested enough will be happy to read the source material themselves.

Thank you.

[Geoff Winnington-Ball (RIP)]

Originally posted by Alexander Borgia
It's going to go global. We'll see what happens in due time.

It's ALREADY global. North America, the mid-east, the far-east, Europe sure to come even if you discount numerous acts of terror in the last two decades. Alexander, it's been building to this throughout the last 30 years, if not more. Doing nothing at this point just leaves us open for more random acts of terror, while it can be demonstrated that these people seem to respect nothing except strength and resolve.

It's a bitter pill to swallow, much, I'm sure, like the one that Britons had to deal with once the warm glow of Munich wore off in early 1939. The world now is a far different place, demanding far different answers to more complex yet eerily similar questions....

Originally posted by Geoff Winnington-Ball
It's ALREADY global. North America, the mid-east, the far-east, Europe sure to come even if you discount numerous acts of terror in the last two decades.

---Acts of terror have been occurring for the entire period of recorded history. So far there hasn't been anything to link Iraq or Saddam Hussein to acts of terror anywhere.

Alexander, it's been building to this throughout the last 30 years, if not more. Doing nothing at this point just leaves us open for more random acts of terror, while it can be demonstrated that these people seem to respect nothing except strength and resolve.

---give me a break! Look at the history of the United States and their interventionist policies to see what the American governement respects.


It's a bitter pill to swallow, much, I'm sure, like the one that Britons had to deal with once the warm glow of Munich wore off in early 1939.

----Exactly, and then it was Hitler the aggressor, now it is Dubya. Even if Saddam leaves the country the US will still occupy it. The ultimatum was to surrender the country or have it seized by force. Iraq does not pose a military theat to anyone right now and there is absolutely no justification for this war.


The world now is a far different place, demanding far different answers to more complex yet eerily similar questions....

No it's not. The world is always the same, the only thing that changes is our material stuff.

Originally posted by Geoff Winnington-Ball
In future, please provide links to articles you think are of interest to our readership, along with your reasons why, rather than cutting and pasting the whole article into our forum. MLU is not a news service, and and readers interested enough will be happy to read the source material themselves.

Thank you.

Sorry, the first article is from Pravda and the site is listed. The other is from www.debka.com. Since the topic is the question on when they launch, I posted this stuff to offer some info.

[Dana Nield]

Alexander,

Your rhetoric is similar to the doom and gloom predictions that the far-left through around prior to the first Gulf War. Needless to say, their claims were fruitless. Furthermore, you remind me of the Munich Appeasers and I guess you think that we should have let Hitler have Czechosolvakia, Poland, France, hell, even the UK? I don't see any difference to your arguements about todays crisis in comparison.

Perhaps as Robert Fulford suggests on TV, you should try reading the National Post instead of Pravda. I found it to be a very reliable news source when I lived in the United States for the past three years. At least that's what the men in the nice white suits told me during my daily capitalist brainwashing sessions.

By the way, I think some chemically dead Kurds would beg to differ about Saddam and terrorism.

Dana

Originally posted by Dana Nield
Alexander,

Your rhetoric is similar to the doom and gloom predictions that the far-left through around prior to the first Gulf War.

---time will tell.

--shouldn't this read...

Needless to say, their claims were fruitless. Furthermore, you remind me of the UN Appeasers and I guess you think that we should have let Bush have Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, hell, even the Saudi Arabia? I don't see any difference to your arguements about todays crisis in comparison.

Perhaps as Robert Fulford suggests on TV, you should try reading the National Post instead of Pravda. I found it to be a very reliable news source when I lived in the United States for the past three years. At least that's what the men in the nice white suits told me during my daily capitalist brainwashing sessions.


----yep, got to expect that comment. I find I like to read as many sources of news as possible so I don't get only the US propaganda. Perhaps you should broaden your news sources.


By the way, I think some chemically dead Kurds would beg to differ about Saddam and terrorism.

---Yeah, especially since it's been proven that it was Iranian gas used by Iranians. And remember, any WMDs that Iraq might have ever had, he got from his old buddies the US.

[Tim Sullivan]

When the war starts it'll be broadcast live during a Dubya speech. There is going to be an uprecedented amount of info shot back from this war as the U.S. has given permission for the reporters to send real-time footage and updates back to the American (and thus Global) public. It'll be interesting to see just how well this works, and what will happen if the sh*t starts to hit the fan and things go Black Hawk Down 2 (God Forbid).

That being said, if Dubya addresses the nation tonight, don't be suprised if he's got footage of the tanks rolling across the Iraq border....

Tim

[Geoff Winnington-Ball (RIP)]

According to The Evening Standard, units of the SBS and U.S. Marines are already engaged around Basra while possibly prepping landing areas... the report is vague enough to be rumour and I haven't heard or seen it corroborated anywhere else, but nonetheless, it's distracting.

[Garry Shipton (RIP)]

I figure it'll start around 6;00 PM our time so that the American public can tune into CNN/Cb.Apparently ,fighting has commenced around Basra,this I'm hearing at 3;10PM our time,but I predict the full onslaught Air war starts before nightly news hours.
May the innocent people be protected

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmp...der_to_advance

Yeah, it's pretty much started now, but it seems that a sandstorm is making them wait before launching their "blitzkrieg."

Now I'm wondering if Dubya waited too long before mounting his capaign. The weather will only get worse from here on out so that will be playing a role on much of the decisions. There continues to be an indication that the US is continuing with their "shock and awe" Dresden re-run. If there are high civilian casualties and massive damage, I can't not see Russia getting involved. China is being quite ambigous too.

Already the talk of war crimes against the Us is being raised at the UN and there is some rumour toward suggesting the expulsion of the US from the UN. The fact remains, and this was iterated by the Russian Ambassador, the war in Iraq is illegal under the UN, and also by Syria. Problems too with the Saudis. http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N19343521

I guess all we can do is wait and see what gets reported when the big show goes on. It may turn out bigger than we thought.

"Weapons of Mass Destruction Not in Iraq, but Anniston, Ala.

The cache of chemical weapons includes 873,020 pounds of sarin, 1,657,480 pounds of VX nerve agent and 1,976,760 pounds of mustard agent - enough to kill or incapacitate millions.

By CHUCK MURPHY, Times Staff Writer
© St. Petersburg Times
published March 16, 2003 "

http://www.informationclearinghouse....rticle2316.htm

[Dana Nield]

Suffering Succotash! I must have taken a wrong turn at Albuquerque!

Cheers!

Dana

GO ARMY! BEAT NAVY!

[Geoff Winnington-Ball (RIP)]

Originally posted by Alexander Borgia
Already the talk of war crimes against the Us is being raised at the UN and there is some rumour toward suggesting the expulsion of the US from the UN. The fact remains, and this was iterated by the Russian Ambassador, the war in Iraq is illegal under the UN, and also by Syria. Problems too with the Saudis.

Given the nature of your recently-posted links, I suppose that pleases you somewhat, eh? Politics before the lives of our young men. :

I wouldn't be surprised at ANYTHING the UN does from this point forward, considering it's been proven about as effective as its predecessor, the League of Nations. For all practical purposes, it's finished as a representative body. Populated largely by third-world, tinpot dictatorships (or at least one-party states) mostly interested in how much cash they can defraud or humble the West into paying, they must be slavering at the jaws at the thought of how they can boot the 'big bad USA' in the ass.

Too bad they never had a thought about Cambodia, or Somalia, or Ruwanda... or for that matter, Kosovo, Tibet or Chechnia, or a dozen other places in the world where far worse has happened. They have a habit of ignoring that which doesn't pay, and turning a blind eye to a hundred military operations which various "members" of this august body have initiated without their "consent".

The double standards are sickening, and paint a true picture of the modern-day effectiveness of the UN. Let them condemn the US... let them condemn Great Britain... let them condemn the 30 or more other countries which have stood up in public to support this action. NO ONE CARES ANYMORE. Let THEM find a new headquarters from which to spew their petty, patronizing bull.

Ferchrissakes, even FRANCE has now done a '180', to suggest that 'if WMD comes down, they're all of a sudden on our side and want in'. It's pathetic, and I feel pathetically sorry for anyone in the West who buys into this unmitigated, immoral political posturing.

I hope the UN DOES "condemn" the US... THAT will put paid to what is now an international joke. Certainly, Jean Chretien has forever humiliated Canada with HIS stand on this... I cannot believe he's done what he's done in forceably keeping our people out of it.

Now that IS humiliating, given our history od standing with our friends and allies.

In the meantime, screw the politics of the thing... 'our' young men are about to launch. The time is now to stand by them, as our grandafthers stood by our fathers. Save your rhetoric for the after-action report. Look ahead, not backwards.

Oh, BTW? Saudi Arabia? You mean that 14th century feudal society which is now getting mighty nervous because we've finally figured "it" out? Oh yeah, they're CERTAINLY a guiding influence... :

ROLL ON THE PEACE. And welcome to a new world order.

[Dana Nield]

Very well said, Geoff.

Cheers!

Dana

Originally posted by Dana Nield
Very well said, Geoff.

Cheers!

Dana

Except that there is absolutely no mention of how Israel is currently in violation of more UN resolutions than all other countries in the world combined. And despite that, the US has been exercising its veto in relation to Israel for a very long time and continues to send billions in military aid every year so that Israel can occupy the Palestine through illegal settlements, destruction of buildings and genocide.

Regardless, there still is no justification for the escalation of the war in Iraq, and it continues to be lillegal under international law. This is why the US opted out of the International Criminal Court, but fails to realize that in due time its leaders may find itself subject to its jurisdiction. Before you say that it would never happen, neither did Hitler's generals think that Nuremberg would ever happen.

The House just voted on the issue and it is decided that our soldiers on exchange in active combat will not be pulled from duty. God bless their souls and pray for their return.

[Geoff Winnington-Ball (RIP)]

Methinks comparing the America of 2003 with Nazi Germany in 194x is a bit of a stretch, Alexander, even for you. How about we don't follow that path any further? Same with the Israeli/Palestinian thing... there are plenty of other forums out there which would welcome both those kinds of comments, but I don't find them particularly appropriate here.

Thanks.