100 Years Ago 28 June 1914

[oldlithgow]

"On June 28, 1914, a teenage Serbian nationalist gunned down Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife, Sophie, as their motorcade maneuvered through the streets of Sarajevo. Next in line for the Austro-Hungarian throne, Ferdinand had not been particularly well liked in aristocratic circles. Nonetheless, his death quickly set off a chain reaction of events culminating in the outbreak of World War I. "

http://www.history.com/news/the-assa...-100-years-ago


The Guns of August are soon to be heard.

[lynx42]

Originally Posted by oldlithgow

The Guns of August are soon to be heard.

I have just finished reading a book which won the Pulitzer Prize in 1962 by Barbara W Tuchman titled “The Guns of August” ISBN 0-345-47609-3.

It is an historical documented listing of the build up and result of the assassination of Grand Duke Ferdinand and his wife Sophie, before and after their death.

It recalls the stories from all sides, be it German, Russian, French, British or any other country involved in World War One.

Essentially it is a military history of the first month of the First World War.

BUT be warned, you will need a BIG dictionary to fully understand the text.There were so many unknown words to me that I sat with a large Webster’s Dictionary to assist me to understand her prose.




I now have a much better understanding of the events leading up to WWI and the parts played by the countries and leaders involved.

Regards Rick.

[Ed Storey]

Here is a view of the assassination site that was taken some 14 years ago after another turbulent time in Sarajevo's history.

[Marc Montgomery]

Interestingly, the reason JFK did not launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike against ths USSR at the height of the cuban missile crisis= as advised by the Cheifs of Staff was that he had just finished reading Tuchman and saw how people could be drawn into a disastrous war if they didnt fully exhaust diplomacy...so he picked up the red phone and called...and we're all alive now because of it.

[Lynn Eades]

Well then, Many thanks go out to Barbara W Tuchman, Who I've never heard of before this thread.

[Tony Wheeler]

Originally Posted by Marc Montgomery

...so he picked up the red phone and called...and we're all alive now because of it.

Actually Marc there was no red phone to pick up during the Cuban missile crisis, that was a big part of the problem. In the end it was only secret back-channel communications which defused the situation at the eleventh hour. It was in response to this problem that the Washington-Moscow hotline was established soon afterwards. Also, contrary to popular culture, it's never been a telephone, it's always text communication. I guess it has to be, for translation purposes, and various other problems arising in phone conversations, like frayed tempers! Of course, the phone works much better in movies, like Dr. Strangelove, which was based on these events.

As for ending the crisis - Kennedy gets the credit in the West, and rightly so, for keeping his Chiefs of Staff at bay, notably Curtis Lemay. However it's arguably Krushchev who deserves most credit, for initiating direct negotiations, via his secret communique, and managing to keep the Soviets stood down throughout the crisis. He's generally painted as the villain of the piece, and indeed of the Cold War itself at that time, but in fact he was under even more pressure from his generals than Kennedy. The real villain of course was Castro, who as we know was a genuine psychopath.

It can be difficult to judge these events half a century later, particularly as a lot of material remains classified, but there have been some interesting revelations over the years, including a statement by Deputy Chief of Staff Burchinal. At the height the crisis, when 80% of SAC planes were ready to launch, with large numbers on airborne alert, many of them orbiting Soviet airspace (as featured in Dr. Strangelove), Burchinal states that "the Russians were so thoroughly stood down, and we knew it. They didn't make any move. They did not increase their alert; they did not increase any flights, or their air defense posture. They didn't do a thing, they froze in place. We were never further from nuclear war than at the time of Cuba, never further."

More recently however it was revealed that a Soviet sub off Cuba came within a hair's breadth of launching a nuclear weapon, and it was only thanks to the 2IC, who managed to dissuade the captain, that the launch was narrowly averted. US warships at the time were dropping depth charges around the sub, which had been out of radio contact for days, so the commander assumed war had already started. One suspects that if he HAD pushed that button, it WOULD have started.

[Marc Montgomery]

You are entirely correct....and have well-clarified the situ..
..my mention of calling the phone should have been stated more figuratively, which as you said, was created post-crisis

.yes back channel negotiations, but the main point is that JFK read TUchman and saw the need to talk to avoid a catastrophe that would undoubtedly have been worse than the slaughter of WW1