[Ganmain Tony]

Very very long - but well worth the read - give yourself 15 minutes. I think you'll get some idea just how invaluable our blokes (all nations involved) are to bringing lasting peace to Afghanistan...

The Australian
By Brendan Nicholson, Defence editor
August 27, 2011

THE generals commanding coalition troops in Afghanistan say their plan to save that country is simple, but not simplistic, and they insist it's working.

As casualties in Afghanistan increased during the past two years, Australians have been told repeatedly by leaders on both sides of politics that they would "stay the course" in a war that has gone on for most of a decade.

Julia Gillard told parliament again this week that the goal was clear and the mission defined.

But apart from the oft-repeated statement that "Afghanistan must not be allowed to again become a safe haven for international terrorism", it has been far from clear how that mission is being carried out or whether it can succeed.

There is a plan and the commanders in Afghanistan have insisted in interviews with Inquirer that it is working.

In April, Defence Minister Stephen Smith and the Australian Defence Force commander in the Middle East, Major General Angus Campbell, said considerable key ground had been taken from the insurgents during a milder than expected northern winter.

They said those gains were substantial but fragile and the insurgents would fight hard to win back the territory during the summer.

The next stage of the plan involves consolidating control over the main population areas lying in a giant circle roughly defined by the main ring road known as Route 1 or Highway 1.

As security is consolidated, these areas are placed under the control of Afghan troops and police backed by coalition forces.

At the same time a strong screen of special forces, including Australian Special Air Service and commandos, are tracking down Taliban leaders, cutting them off from supplies from Pakistan and elsewhere and making it dangerous for them to move back into Afghanistan.

ADF head of joint operations Lieutenant General Ash Power was in Afghanistan this month for briefings from Australian and NATO commanders.

Another Australian in a key role is Major General Michael Krause, the chief military planner in coalition headquarters.

A race is on between the declining will to fight of Western nations that are struggling economically and tiring of seeing soldiers killed, and the push to improve security, governance and life in Afghanistan and to build respect for the rule of law.

The generals spoke frankly about the campaign and they are confident the insurgency can be defeated. Power says the public perception that the war is going badly is wrong.

"People develop a perception from what they read or hear or see on the television and all you're doing in news cycles is taking snapshots of a spectacular event, whether it be the attack on an international hotel or what happened in Tarin Kowt on July 28 [a lethal Taliban attack on the governor's compound and the headquarters of Matiullah Khan, the strongman recently appointed as police chief in Oruzgan province].

"If you just get that as the only view of Afghanistan then, quite understandably, you'll think things are going pretty bad.

"If you keep going back, as I've done now for a while, you do see progress. You see the roads being built, the schools being built and there's certainly more kids going to school or getting access to health facilities.

"Having said that, there's still a long way to go."

It's clear that the Afghanistan that emerges after transition will be far from perfect, a compromise of sorts.

In April, a US Defence Department study on progress towards security and stability warned that extensive work was needed to improve the ability of the government of Hamid Karzai to bring law and justice to the people. Even more bluntly, it warned that corruption would erode the government's legitimacy, undermine the international community's objectives and drive Afghans into the hands of the insurgency.

The recent appointment of Khan as police chief in Oruzgan province has been strongly criticised internationally. MK, as he is known, amassed a fortune and established a power base largely through contracts with coalition forces to escort their road supply convoys through dangerous areas. It has been claimed that he has dealt harshly with opponents. Australian commanders have taken a "better the devil you know" position on MK and given him the benefit of the doubt.

Power says it has been tough for anyone to earn a living in Afghanistan.

"If you've been able to rise to the top and you've in that position of influence, no doubt you would have got there through birth right, familial links, patronage, tribal support, a bit of rat cunning, having highly tuned survival skills, a fair bit of street smarts and obviously you have to be supported by other people," he says.

"Matiullah Khan is now the appointed police chief inside the province and we're looking forward to working with him."

MK has said all the right things and promised to deal with some difficult areas.

"It will be very interesting to see how he manages the police force around the province," Power says.

Krause says recent assassinations of key figures close to Karzai and other high-profile attacks are signs the insurgency has had to change its tactics.

"There is no mass insurgency in this country; that's gone," he says.

The Taliban is turning to "spectacular" attacks by hit squads coming in from across the border.

"The Taliban and other insurgent groups have recognised that we've got a better than even chance of pulling this off," Krause says. "On a daily basis, in the areas we've retained there is enough good governance happening that it is accelerating away from the Taliban's ability to affect it."

Krause scoffs at the refrain that "the West has the watches and the Taliban has the time".

"This idea of waiting out the West is a fantasy. We'll stay here and we'll make it happen," he says.

"All we need is patience from people back home and a recognition that we can do this. It is very, very doable.

"By securing the Afghan people we give them the opportunity to reject the Taliban and get on with life. By [our] securing population centres and allowing commerce between them, life can go on.

"The Taliban is able to operate in this country largely through extortion, fear and intimidation. The proof of that is where we've been able to secure an area the Taliban have not come back."

Lashkar Gah district, in Helmand province, was a Taliban stronghold. Coalition and Afghan forces went in before and during the northern winter and cleared the insurgents from the area.

"We demonstrated to the people that we could hold it against the Taliban. It is now in Afghan control so the governance is out there, the security is out there. The people are growing wheat instead of poppy and the kids are going to school," Krause says.

"That's effectively what we're going to do across the country."

The Taliban tried during the northern summer to retake Kandahar and Lashkar Gah but failed.

"So we have demonstrated our ability to retain the key bits of terrain in this country such as Kandahar and the central Helmand River Valley, and it is our intention to continue to do that."

Krause says these gains are still reversible but as Afghan troops improve those areas will be more secure.

"The Taliban can wait us out, they can't wait out the Afghan army and the Afghan police. Every day they fail to recapture is a day the Afghans get stronger."

Krause says there's already a building boom in some of the areas freed from Taliban control. "They're voting with their hands, they're building."

The plan is to demonstrate that Afghan troops and police can keep the Taliban out.

"We then, effectively, will have militarily defeated the Taliban. One option for them then is to engage in political dialogue and that would be fine," Krause says.

Some emphasis is now switching to the east to deal with the Haqqani network, which is allied to the Taliban and has links to al-Qa'ida and Pakistan. The group is heavily involved in extortion and other criminal activity including the drug trade and uses terror to advance its cause. It carries out most attacks in Kabul and its members are considered the best trained and equipped insurgents. They are responsible for some of the bloodier attacks on civilians.

"They are not going to reconcile so we'll probably use more counter-terrorist techniques against them than we would use classic counter-insurgency," Krause says.

Such as? "Killing them. They're not going to reconcile."

By 2014 the Afghan security forces will be fully trained, fielded and equipped, Krause says. "They will have the lead in the security of the country. We will be in support of them by then."

Krause says 2014 will not be the end of the operation but a change of mission.

After 2014, the US and NATO will have a strategic agreement with Afghanistan to demonstrate a long-term commitment.

When Smith outlined plans for Australian troops to hand over security control to Afghan forces by 2014 he said some instructors would stay on. Australian special forces will stay on too.

It is clear that a strong special forces contingent with all the helicopters, intelligence-gathering resources and other support they use will be needed in Afghanistan for some time after 2014 to help fend off any Taliban resurgence.

Krause has dealt closely with the Afghan army and says he has become increasingly impressed.

"They are extremely good natural fighters but they also have a great sense of loyalty and patriotism. It is a noble profession to be a warrior in this country."

Defence Minister Abdul Rahim Wardak, a veteran of the war against the Russians, says now the armed forces are coming up to strength it's time to work on quality and replace leaders who are not up to the job.

Krause says the loss of a helicopter full of US special forces soldiers recently is not a sign that that Taliban is on top.

"Casualties are a very regrettable part of conflict but there's a big difference between the cost of a war and progress in a war. We do about eight to 10 of those activities every night so there's a very high tempo of operations."

Krause says the goal is to get Afghanistan to a stage where it can stand on its own feet and reject the Taliban so there's a reasonable expectation it can maintain its own security, improve governance and ensure development.

"You've got to realise the bar is pretty low. We're not turning this place into Australia.

"They're coming off such a low base that if there's a cold water tap in the house they feel they're making a huge advance. They are industrious and ingenious people In the areas we have secured, the Afghans are rebuilding their country. That's good enough. That's what makes it worth it."

Krause says some Taliban attacks have been barbaric. A 12-year-old was used in recent suicide attack and troops rescued a 10-year-old fitted with a suicide vest.

"They use the mentally ill. They can coerce people to be suicide bombers by holding their family and they hanged a seven-year-old for talking to coalition troops in Helmand province."

But he says the situation in Afghanistan is rapidly improving. "It's changed very quickly in the six months I've been here and all for the better.

"We have demonstrated tangible progress in the really hard bits. It has had an effect on the Taliban and we have been able to defeat them in key areas and our aim now is to sustain that defeat.

"From where I am at the moment that seems a very reasonable expectation."

So has Australia's investment in blood and money been worth it?

"I'll leave other people to make that judgment on whether it's been worth it. But what I can say is that it is highly likely that it will be successful," Krause says.

"The bottom line is that we will achieve the mission we've been sent here by the international community to do.

"We're not leaving with our tail between our legs. We'll actually do this one."





David Connery

Australian Logistics Services

Vice President